As soon as we turn on the television, we immediately notice how the advertisements in the automotive world are almost totally focused on the ecological transition. An interesting question is related to the need for this ecological transition, and whether electric is really inevitable.
Obviously we cannot give a single and unambiguous answer, as the speech is truly immense and very broad. There are many economic actors, and roles that must be respected within this question.
Within this article, we will look in particular at the role of institutions and their weight in the timing and schedule of change. In fact, individual automotive manufacturers cannot autonomously revolutionize a complex market, such as the automotive one.
A well-structured context of roles and rules must be created and everything there is must be outlined by a policy maker, or by the institutions. The latter, in fact, have the task of dictating times and sanctioning any legislative developments.
As everyone knows, there is a plan with precise decarbonization objectives, worldwide, foreseen for 2050. Obviously today we are in 2022, and this date could seem very distant. Given the development of electric cars, but also the problems of marketing the latter, linked to the problem of microchips and the development of electric batteries, we must in any case implement a progressive growth plan.
In this regard, the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan predicts that in 2030 there will be a fleet of 4 million electric cars and 2 million plug-in hybrid cars . Obviously, this forecast can be revised upwards or downwards, depending on the incentives that the Italian government will want to put on the plate in the coming years.
In recent months, however, guidelines have been outlined, which have seen the Italian government very active in this area. In consideration of the European Union's Fit for 55 package, which provides for a 100% zero-emission car fleet in circulation in 2050, much still needs to be defined.
However, to reach 100% electric cars in 28 years, the demand for electric cars should increase exponentially and be far higher than those currently in existence. For this reason, a planning of supporting policies is necessary, well beyond 2030 as the Italian State currently has in place.
These policies aim both to lower the purchase price of electric cars, but also to help car manufacturers in a variety of infrastructure policies.
According to estimates, electric and traditional cars will come to have similar prices, starting from the lowest segments, not before 2030. This is why the Italian government has decided to outline a series of incentives, only until 2030, thus allowing price alignment at a later stage.
We can therefore say that we are in a transitional phase, which is obviously essential for structuring the future of sustainable mobility. In fact, at this stage, the institutions have the task of obviously providing purchase incentives, but also structural concessions, as we said before.
To get down to the concrete, we must hypothesize the creation of industries that are able to create electric batteries, or the famous gigafactories. The success of electric cars does not simply pass from the creation of beautiful and futuristic cars, but also from the production within our beautiful country, of a whole series of micro-enterprises that allow us to be autonomous in the creation of electric batteries.
Also in consideration of the development of international trade, we can all affirm that economic independence is the most strategic.
The Italian government will soon have to outline other zero-emission fueling studies, such as hydrogen and synthetic fuels. Although not optimal convenience has been highlighted for consumers, it is also true that we cannot exclude alternatives in terms of power supplies for the future. In this way, we can have a diversification, also depending on the type of vehicle we are going to examine. Many studies and many companies, in fact, state that hydrogen could be optimally used inside trucks, which could recharge their cylinders in a very short time to then travel many kilometers.
This is therefore how the role of institutions is fundamental in order to highlight a structured and coordinated plan, even within the service areas.
In Italy, there is no shortage of refueling points, but they are almost always characterized by a medium / low charging speed, which therefore does not allow the cars to recharge their battery in a very short time. Very often, people decide not to buy an electric car as they are well aware that charging times are currently long and therefore do not allow people to quickly recharge their car. With the development of high-capacity batteries, we could therefore see an increase in the sale of electric cars.
If the Italian government were able to clearly and concretely outline a development plan and a coordinated plan for the progressive design of the electric battery service areas, this is how electric cars could really take off in terms of development and sales.
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